Weekly Forex Technical Analysis (Nov 11 — Nov 15, 2019)

EUR/USD

Floor pivot points

3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res
1.0807 1.0912 1.0965 1.1070 1.1124 1.1229 1.1283

EUR/USD - Floor pivot points as of Nov 9, 2019

Woodie’s pivot points

2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res
1.0899 1.0940 1.1057 1.1098 1.1216

EUR/USD - Woodie's pivot points as of Nov 9, 2019

Camarilla pivot points

4th Sup 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res 4th Res
1.0932 1.0975 1.0990 1.1004 1.1033 1.1048 1.1063 1.1106

EUR/USD - Camarilla pivot points as of Nov 9, 2019

Tom Demark’s pivot points

Support Resistance
1.0938 1.1097

EUR/USD - Tom Demark's pivot points as of Nov 9, 2019

Fibonacci retracement levels

0.0% 23.6% 38.2% 50.0% 61.8% 100.0%
1.1017 1.1054 1.1077 1.1096 1.1115 1.1175

EUR/USD - Fibonacci retracement levels as of Nov 9, 2019

GBP/USD

Floor pivot points

3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res
1.2541 1.2654 1.2715 1.2829 1.2889 1.3003 1.3063

GBP/USD - Floor pivot points as of Nov 9, 2019

Woodie’s pivot points

2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res
1.2641 1.2688 1.2815 1.2862 1.2989

GBP/USD - Woodie's pivot points as of Nov 9, 2019

Camarilla pivot points

4th Sup 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res 4th Res
1.2679 1.2727 1.2743 1.2759 1.2791 1.2807 1.2823 1.2871

GBP/USD - Camarilla pivot points as of Nov 9, 2019

Tom Demark’s pivot points

Support Resistance
1.2685 1.2859

GBP/USD - Tom Demark's pivot points as of Nov 9, 2019

Fibonacci retracement levels

0.0% 23.6% 38.2% 50.0% 61.8% 100.0%
1.2768 1.2809 1.2835 1.2855 1.2876 1.2943

GBP/USD - Fibonacci retracement levels as of Nov 9, 2019

USD/JPY

Floor pivot points

3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res
107.10 107.63 108.43 108.96 109.75 110.28 111.07

USD/JPY - Floor pivot points as of Nov 9, 2019

Woodie’s pivot points

2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res
107.70 108.56 109.02 109.88 110.35

USD/JPY - Woodie's pivot points as of Nov 9, 2019

Camarilla pivot points

4th Sup 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res 4th Res
108.49 108.86 108.98 109.10 109.34 109.46 109.58 109.95

USD/JPY - Camarilla pivot points as of Nov 9, 2019

Tom Demark’s pivot points

Support Resistance
108.69 110.02

USD/JPY - Tom Demark's pivot points as of Nov 9, 2019

Fibonacci retracement levels

0.0% 23.6% 38.2% 50.0% 61.8% 100.0%
108.16 108.47 108.67 108.82 108.98 109.49

USD/JPY - Fibonacci retracement levels as of Nov 9, 2019

AUD/USD

Floor pivot points

3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res
0.6747 0.6797 0.6827 0.6878 0.6908 0.6958 0.6988

AUD/USD - Floor pivot points as of Nov 9, 2019

Woodie’s pivot points

2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res
0.6792 0.6817 0.6872 0.6898 0.6953

AUD/USD - Woodie's pivot points as of Nov 9, 2019

Camarilla pivot points

4th Sup 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res 4th Res
0.6813 0.6835 0.6843 0.6850 0.6865 0.6872 0.6879 0.6902

AUD/USD - Camarilla pivot points as of Nov 9, 2019

Tom Demark’s pivot points

Support Resistance
0.6812 0.6893

AUD/USD - Tom Demark's pivot points as of Nov 9, 2019

Fibonacci retracement levels

0.0% 23.6% 38.2% 50.0% 61.8% 100.0%
0.6847 0.6866 0.6878 0.6888 0.6897 0.6928

AUD/USD - Fibonacci retracement levels as of Nov 9, 2019

USD/CAD

Floor pivot points

3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res
1.3026 1.3071 1.3148 1.3193 1.3270 1.3315 1.3392

USD/CAD - Floor pivot points as of Nov 9, 2019

Woodie’s pivot points

2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res
1.3079 1.3165 1.3201 1.3287 1.3323

USD/CAD - Woodie's pivot points as of Nov 9, 2019

Camarilla pivot points

4th Sup 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res 4th Res
1.3158 1.3192 1.3203 1.3214 1.3237 1.3248 1.3259 1.3293

USD/CAD - Camarilla pivot points as of Nov 9, 2019

Tom Demark’s pivot points

Support Resistance
1.3170 1.3292

USD/CAD - Tom Demark's pivot points as of Nov 9, 2019

Fibonacci retracement levels

0.0% 23.6% 38.2% 50.0% 61.8% 100.0%
1.3115 1.3144 1.3162 1.3176 1.3190 1.3237

USD/CAD - Fibonacci retracement levels as of Nov 9, 2019

If you have any questions or comments on this technical analysis, please feel free to reply below.

Posted on Forex blog.

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Japanese Yen In "No Man's Land." When will the BOJ Intervene to stop its rise?

This, according to a hedge fund manager that has decided to cancel all of his fund’s bearish bets on the Japanese Yen. The reason: the yen is rising, and it’s unclear when – or even if – the government will intervene to push it back down. Even though the yen’s strength is fundamentally illogical, it seems that investors are growing increasingly wary of betting against it.


As I pointed out in my previous post on the Yen (“Japanese Yen Strength is Illogical, but Does it Matter?“), the yen has actually fallen over the last twelve months, on a correlation weighted basis (though to be fair, it has staged a pretty impressive comeback since the beginning of April). Unfortunately, investors mainly care about how it is performing against a handful of key currencies, namely the US Dollar. Simply, the yen continues to rise against the dollar, and it is unclear when it will stop.

Japanese government analysis has indeed confirmed that “speculators” are behind the strong yen, as the alleged wide-scale repatriation of yen by Japanese insurance companies has yet to materialize. Of course, there isn’t really much doubt: Japan’s economy is contracting, due to decrease in output spurred by the tsunami. In May, it recorded its second largest monthly trade deficit ever.

Meanwhile, interest rates and bond yields are pathetically low, and the Bank of Japan is being urged to expand its asset buying program, which would theoretically result in a devaluation of the yen. As  a result, retail Japanese forex traders (nicknamed “Mrs. Watanabes“) have resumed shorting the Yen as part of a carry trade strategy.

Alas, speculators either don’t share their pessimism or are running out of patience. While everyone continues to assume that the BOJ will intervene if the Yen rises to 80 against the dollar, no one can be sure whether the line in the sand might not be 78 or even 75. At this point, intervention seems to hinge more on politics than on economics, which means predicting it is beyond the scope of this post. In other words, “There is too much uncertainty and volatility in markets right now to make that yen trade appealing.” And sure enough, the most recent Commitments of Traders data shows that speculators have been re-building their yen long positions over the last month.


In the end, the speculators are probably right. The Bank of Japan has intervened twice over the last twelve months, and the impact has always been short-lived. Besides, given that many speculators still remain committed to shorting the yen, it remains extraordinarily vulnerable to the kind of short squeeze that sent it soaring 5% in a single session en route to the record high it touched in March.

I’m personally still bearish on the yen, but I also think it’s too risky to short it against the dollar, which seems to be declining for its own reasons. As you can see from the chart below, the yen has fallen against virtually every other major currency. Yen shorters, then, might be wise to avoid the dollar altogether and focus instead on any number of other currencies.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-17/japan-recovery-means-boj-can-avoid-adding-stimulus-muto-says.html

http://cdn.socialtwist.com/2009021910542/script.jsSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

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EUR/USD Continues to Decline amid US-China Trade Talks Optimism

EUR/USD continued to decline today as traders felt optimistic about the US-China trade negotiations amid signs that the world’s two biggest economies are close to a deal. Currently, the pair has paused its decline and is moving sideways.

Initial jobless claims were at the seasonally adjusted level of 211k last week, down from the previous week’s revised level of 219k. The actual value was close to the median forecast of 215k. (Event A on the chart.)

Consumer credit rose by just $9.5 billion in September, missing the consensus forecast of $15.6 billion. The indicator was up by $17.9 billion in August. (Event B on the chart.)

If you have any comments on the recent EUR/USD action, please reply using the form below.

Posted on Forex blog.

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EUR/USD Dips After US NFP, Bounces Later

EUR/USD declined following the release of US nonfarm payrolls as employment growth beat expectations. But the currency pair rebounded later as markets turned their attention to wage inflation that missed expectations.

US nonfarm payrolls rose by 128k in October, beating the average forecast of 90k. The September increase got a big positive revision from 136k to 180k. Unemployment rate rose a bit from 3.5% to 3.6%, but market participants were expecting that. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% after showing no change in the previous month but missed market expectations of a 0.3% increase. (Event A on the chart.)

Markit manufacturing PMI rose a bit to 51.3 in October from 51.1 in September according to the final estimate. Traders were anticipating the same 51.5 reading as in the preliminary estimate. (Event B on the chart.)

ISM manufacturing PMI advanced to 48.3% in October from 47.8% in September but failed to meet market expectations of a 49.0% figure. (Event C on the chart.)

Construction spending rose 0.5% in September from August, exceeding the average forecast of a 0.2% increase. The August reading got a negative revision from an increase of 0.1% to a drop of 0.3%. (Event C on the chart.)

If you have any comments on the recent EUR/USD action, please reply using the form below.

Posted on Forex blog.

Read More

Japanese Yen In "No Man's Land." When will the BOJ Intervene to stop its rise?

This, according to a hedge fund manager that has decided to cancel all of his fund’s bearish bets on the Japanese Yen. The reason: the yen is rising, and it’s unclear when – or even if – the government will intervene to push it back down. Even though the yen’s strength is fundamentally illogical, it seems that investors are growing increasingly wary of betting against it.


As I pointed out in my previous post on the Yen (“Japanese Yen Strength is Illogical, but Does it Matter?“), the yen has actually fallen over the last twelve months, on a correlation weighted basis (though to be fair, it has staged a pretty impressive comeback since the beginning of April). Unfortunately, investors mainly care about how it is performing against a handful of key currencies, namely the US Dollar. Simply, the yen continues to rise against the dollar, and it is unclear when it will stop.

Japanese government analysis has indeed confirmed that “speculators” are behind the strong yen, as the alleged wide-scale repatriation of yen by Japanese insurance companies has yet to materialize. Of course, there isn’t really much doubt: Japan’s economy is contracting, due to decrease in output spurred by the tsunami. In May, it recorded its second largest monthly trade deficit ever.

Meanwhile, interest rates and bond yields are pathetically low, and the Bank of Japan is being urged to expand its asset buying program, which would theoretically result in a devaluation of the yen. As  a result, retail Japanese forex traders (nicknamed “Mrs. Watanabes“) have resumed shorting the Yen as part of a carry trade strategy.

Alas, speculators either don’t share their pessimism or are running out of patience. While everyone continues to assume that the BOJ will intervene if the Yen rises to 80 against the dollar, no one can be sure whether the line in the sand might not be 78 or even 75. At this point, intervention seems to hinge more on politics than on economics, which means predicting it is beyond the scope of this post. In other words, “There is too much uncertainty and volatility in markets right now to make that yen trade appealing.” And sure enough, the most recent Commitments of Traders data shows that speculators have been re-building their yen long positions over the last month.


In the end, the speculators are probably right. The Bank of Japan has intervened twice over the last twelve months, and the impact has always been short-lived. Besides, given that many speculators still remain committed to shorting the yen, it remains extraordinarily vulnerable to the kind of short squeeze that sent it soaring 5% in a single session en route to the record high it touched in March.

I’m personally still bearish on the yen, but I also think it’s too risky to short it against the dollar, which seems to be declining for its own reasons. As you can see from the chart below, the yen has fallen against virtually every other major currency. Yen shorters, then, might be wise to avoid the dollar altogether and focus instead on any number of other currencies.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-17/japan-recovery-means-boj-can-avoid-adding-stimulus-muto-says.html

http://cdn.socialtwist.com/2009021910542/script.jsSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

Read More